Ramy Mohamed Ghazy a, Chenyu Sun b c d, Ayoub Ali Alshaikh a, Tuan Vinh e
Abstract
Background: Saudi Arabia has made significant progress toward malaria elimination; however, imported cases continue to occur, particularly in the southwestern regions. This study aimed to describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with malaria in the Aseer Region, Saudi Arabia. Methods: A retrospective observational study was conducted at Khamis Mushait General Hospital, Aseer Region, Saudi Arabia, including all patients with malaria from January 2022 to December 2025. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and outcome data were extracted from the electronic medical records. Severe malaria was defined according to the World Health Organization criteria. Multivariate logistic regression using Firth’s penalized maximum likelihood estimation was performed to identify independent predictors of severe malaria (≥1 WHO criterion). Statistical analysis was performed using R software (version 4.2.1). Results: A total of 311 patients were included, predominantly male (90.0%), with a mean age of 28.8 ± 11.3 years. Ethiopian nationals comprised nearly half the cases (48.2%), followed by Saudi (16.4%) and Yemeni (15.1%) nationals. Plasmodium vivax was the most common species (51.1%), followed by Plasmodium. falciparum (40.2%). Fever was the most frequent symptom (89.4%), followed by fatigue (50.8%), chills (46.9%), and vomiting (39.5%). Low parasitemia (<1%) was the most frequent finding (33.8%), followed by moderate (27.3%) and mild (18.3%) levels, while high (4.2%) and very high parasitemia (1.9%) were uncommon. Severe malaria (≥1 criterion) was diagnosed at 43.7%, with severe anemia (26.0%) and jaundice (23.2%) being the most frequent WHO severity criteria. Notably, 84% of the cases occurred during 2024–2025, indicating a recent outbreak, with a sharp peak of 43 cases in October 2024. Multivariate logistic regression identified two independent predictors of having at least one WHO severity criterion: higher parasitemia level (adjusted OR = 1.70 per 1% increase, 95% CI: 1.40–2.11, p < 0.001) and non-Saudi nationality (adjusted OR = 2.40, 95% CI: 1.10–5.62, p = 0.027). Conclusions: Malaria in the Aseer Region predominantly affects young adult male expatriates, suggesting its imported nature. The predominance of P. vivax represents a shift from historical patterns. Parasitemia level and being of non-Saudi nationality independently predict severe malaria and may therefore support risk stratification and clinical decision-making. The dramatic case surge in 2024–2025 highlights regional vulnerability to outbreaks despite control progress. These findings support enhanced screening for at-risk populations, maintenance of clinical capacity for severe malaria management, and robust surveillance systems for early outbreak detection.
