Ramy Mohamed Ghazy a, Chenyu Sun b c d, Ayoub Ali Alshaikh a, Tuan Vinh e
Abstract
Objective
To address the intensifying burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Egypt, the present study analyzed incidence trends from 1990 to 2021 and utilized AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling to forecast the epidemiological landscape through 2030.
Methods
We analyzed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data for incidence rates of cancer, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs), and diabetes mellitus/chronic kidney diseases (DKDs) using standardized age metrics. We applied ARIMA models after performing stationarity testing, parameter selection and rolling-window cross-validation to ensure forecasting precision.
Results
Between 1990 and 2021, cancer incidence rose from 365.7 (95% UI: 309.4–430.9) to 422.4 (95% UI: 360.8–490.3), representing a 15.5% increase. CVDs showed a modest rise, increasing from 1,420.0 (95% UI: 1,288.7–1,570.3) to 1,441.1 (95% UI: 1,301.8–1,590.9), a 1.5% increase. In contrast, CRDs declined from 856.0 (95% UI: 731.8–1,012.4) to 686.5 (95% UI: 596.3–794.6), reflecting a 19.8% reduction. Meanwhile, DKDs increased substantially, rising from 396.1 (95% UI: 372.2–422.7) to 862.5 (95% UI: 812.4–911.9), a 117.7% increase. Significant sex-based disparities were observed: females experience a higher burden of DKDs and cancer, while males exhibit higher incidence of CVDs and CRDs across most age groups. Looking ahead, cancer incidence is projected to rise from 422.4 (95% UI: 360.8–490.3) in 2021 to 443.80 per 100,000 (95% PI: 376.28–511.33) by 2030, a 5.1% increase. CVDs are expected to increase from 1,441.1 (95% UI: 1,301.8–1,590.9) to 1,491.35 per 100,000 (95% PI: 1,473.27–1,505.22), representing a 3.5% rise. CRDs, despite previous declines, are projected to reverse course and increase slightly from 686.5 (95% UI: 596.3–794.6) to 700.38 per 100,000 (95% PI: 541.92–858.83) by 2030 (+2.0%). In contrast, DKDs are forecast to rise more markedly from 862.5 (95% UI: 812.4–911.9) to 1,009.35 per 100,000 (95% PI: 895.59–1,137.56), a further 17.0% increase. The average annual percent change (APC) was highest for DKDs in both periods (+2.6% during 1990–2021 and +1.8% during 2021–2030), while CVDs exhibited an acceleration in APC, increasing from +0.05% to +0.4% per year.
Conclusion
Egypt will experience an increased pattern of the studied NCDs despite the historical witnessed declined trend of CRDs. Females beard a higher burden of DKDs and cancer, while males were more affected by CVDs and CRDs, underscoring the need for gender-sensitive interventions. Strengthening health coverage, healthy lifestyles, and improving disease surveillance are critical to reduce NCDs.
